China's nuclear shadow reaches Europe: "Beijing is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country."

"European capitals can no longer ignore China's nuclear shadow," notes the report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the world's oldest defense and security think tank. While Russia and the United States dominate the discussion when it comes to nuclear weapons, others are quickly gaining ground, and that candidate is Beijing. Since the first nuclear bomb detonation in 1964, China now has at least 500 nuclear warheads, up from 410 a year ago , according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This means that "China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country," notes Hans M. Kristensen, a research associate with SIPRI's weapons of mass destruction program.

Javier Gil, professor of International Relations and expert on Asia, explains to ABC that the Asian giant is currently modernizing its nuclear arsenal and increasing its nuclear warheads. "There is talk that in five years it will reach 1,000 nuclear warheads. And not only that, but it also has a renewed launch arsenal . A nuclear triad with three different elements to deploy the weapon, either using strategic bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), or submarines," Gil lists. And RUSI adds that Beijing seems to be "adopting a launch posture similar to those maintained by Russia and the United States." When asked why now, Gil points out that "its objectives are an internal affirmation of deterrence with respect to Taiwan , which is the last territory it has left to recover, and an external affirmation of being an untouchable country vis-à-vis the rest."

For the Pentagon , China's nuclear expansion poses a challenge to European security by complicating NATO's deterrence posture and requires a strategic recalibration by the Alliance's nuclear powers, facing the question of whether their inherited posture will remain adequate in the future and whether it retains sufficient deterrent power in the context of a nuclear multipolarity.

While China has so far maintained a no-first-use policy, “China is likely to have begun deploying a small number of nuclear-capable missiles (estimated at around 24) on high operational alert, ready to be launched at any time ,” SIPRI described as early as 2023. And the Pentagon has echoed that suspicion, stating that Beijing would likely consider being the first to use nuclear weapons if a conventional military defeat in Taiwan seriously threatened the survival of the Chinese Communist regime.

In addition, 350 new silos are being built in China. A record-breaking nuclear expansion means that, for the Pentagon , by the 2030s, the U.S. will face, for the first time in its history, two major nuclear powers as strategic competitors and potential adversaries.

The Chief of the Defence Staff of the Royal United Services Institute, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, warned at a conference in late 2024 that the world has left behind a period of nuclear stability , facing the dangers posed by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, what they call the CRINK axis. These countries could unite to pressure the West and achieve their individual goals. "The era of post-Cold War stability is over," Radakin declared at a conference.

He said the first nuclear era was the Cold War, a period "defined by two opposing blocs governed by the risk of uncontrollable escalation under the logic of deterrence." The second nuclear era was defined as "disarmament and counter-proliferation efforts," he continued. However, the situation facing the world is now "more complex." In this context, Chinese leader Xi Jinping wants his People's Liberation Army (PLA) to become a world-class army by 2049 , with the announcement of taking Taiwan by force, if necessary, by 2027. And Gil believes that Taiwan will not be reintegrated into China peacefully, therefore only with the use of military force and the nuclear threat would it achieve this.

RUSI details that China’s nuclear expansion is characterized by the development of a nuclear battery based on Dong Feng-26 ballistic missiles, with a range of 4,000 km and a high degree of accuracy, characterized by the US Department of Defense as “the weapon system most likely to deploy low-yield warheads.” Another example is the introduction of the H-6N bomber, capable of launching nuclear cruise missiles from the air. Likewise, the Pentagon states that China will likely need to begin producing new plutonium this decade to meet the needs of its growing nuclear stockpile. In 2023, it began operating two large centrifuge enrichment plants, one in Emeishan and another in Lanzhou.

Although Beijing has responded by denying the accusations, the US Department of Defense details that "China is combining its civilian industrial and technological sectors with its defense sector to boost dual-use infrastructure. " China is believed to likely seek to acquire significant plutonium reserves through the use of its civilian reactors, including two fast breeder reactors ," they state. These are a type of reactor that can produce weapons-grade plutonium, which can be used in nuclear missiles.

In addition, Russia appears to be playing a central role in expanding China's nuclear capabilities . The state-owned nuclear energy company, Rosatom, signed a decades-long cooperation agreement with China's nuclear energy authority. Gil believes there may have been a transfer of civilian nuclear technology. "It remains to be seen, at the level of military nuclear technology, what Russia has been able to contribute to China," he clarifies.

However, the level of transparency surrounding China's nuclear production has been steadily declining . And faced with this prospect, "there's probably nothing we can do to stop, slow, interrupt, or destroy China's nuclear development," General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress. Reality has proven that China is a diligent student who understands very well one of its famous proverbs: "Do not be afraid of growing slowly, be afraid of standing still."